BTC price remains below $19K amid hopes Q4 will end Bitcoin’s bear market

Bitcoin (BTC) hit new weekly lows on September 28 as the decline in risk assets continued overnight.

BTC/USD 1 hour candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Trader: ‘First new lows’ ahead of Q4 recovery

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD falling to $18,461 on Bitstamp, down almost $2,000 from the previous day’s high.

The change in direction came in stride with shares turning red after initially heading slightly higher at the opening of Wall Street.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index ended the day down 0.25% and up 0.25%, respectively.

However, the crypto failed to recoup its losses and while hopes were for Q4 to deliver a more solid recovery, traders first bet on continued pain.

Crypto’s popular Il Capo Twitter account has appeared confirm that he preferred October to copy last year’s performance – something that earned him the nickname “Uptober”.

In a comment, he added that he “expects a bullish Q4. But first new lows.”

Fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital, meanwhile, pointed to the hurdles Bitcoin has to overcome on monthly timeframes.

“BTC sharp rejection at green level ~$19800 already,” he wrote in a tweet about the upcoming closing of the monthly candle:

“Continued volatility in and around this level can be expected as $BTC approaches its monthly close. Most important will be how the monthly candle actually closes against the green level of the range.”

BTC/USD Annotated Chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter

Equity added that a close below this green line would mean breaking out of the monthly range effective from late 2020.

Betting on bowing bears

In discussing when the 2022 bear market might end, opinions differed on the use of data from previous halving cycles.

Related: Older Bitcoin Leaves Wallet After 10-Year Hibernation

Upload Comparison Chart Luke Martin, host of the STACKS Podcast, noted that it has been 322 days since Bitcoin’s last all-time high of $69,000.

Since the previous all-time high in 2017, BTC/USD has spent 364 days in a bear market, suggesting the end could be in store if history repeats itself.

“The cycle time here is optimal,” responded Charles Edwards, creator of crypto asset manager Capriole.

Others were less convinced, with tedtalksmacro drawing attention to the fact that the macro environment looked nothing like it did in 2018, something Martin acknowledged.

BTC/USD Annotated Chart. Source: Luke Martin/Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported, the United States Federal Reserve has not made a commitment to stop interest rate hikes putting pressure on risk assets, including crypto, this year.

The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.